DENVER, July 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Although most Americans consistently report they want to reduce their sugar consumption, those intentions have yet to translate into meaningful behavioral change. U.S. sugar deliveries remain surprisingly strong, suggesting resilient demand for natural sweeteners. But longer-term risks are emerging. Health-focused initiatives continue to elevate concerns about added sugars, and growing use of GLP-1 medications for weight loss could pressure the market in the years to come.
According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, rising sugar deliveries, stable consumption levels and declining use of high-fructose corn syrup all point to continued consumer demand for natural sweeteners. However, the report cautions that stable levels of sugar consumption in recent years should not lead to overconfidence in continued consumer behavior or certainty about future demand.
“For sugar producers, refiners and food manufacturers the central question is no longer whether demand is stable today, but how emerging trends will reshape the market over the next decade,” said Billy Roberts, food and beverage economist with CoBank. “GLP-1 medications in particular are poised to have the biggest impact on demand because they reduce overall consumption, and sugar remains deeply embedded across many food and beverage categories.”
J.P. Morgan estimates that GLP-1 use could reduce annual U.S. food and beverage spending by $30 billion by 2030 and $55 billion by 2034. Some projections suggest grocery basket sizes could decline by as much as 31% among active users. Sweetened foods and beverages are unlikely to be uniquely targeted, but they still face lower demand if consumers generally eat less. The potential impact could accelerate after 2031 when key semaglutide patents expire in the United States. Generic competition would likely reduce treatment costs significantly and expand GLP-1 access to a broader consumer base.
Health-focused initiatives are adding to the headwinds, including the Make America Healthy Again movement, which advises Americans to sharply cut added sugars and artificial sweeteners. While these efforts have not materially reduced consumption to date, they add to growing consumer awareness around nutrition and ingredient choices.
Consumer dietary intentions also signal a challenging environment for sugar demand. According to the International Food Information Council, 75% of consumers in 2025 reported trying to limit or avoid sugar altogether. Importantly, those seeking less sugar are not automatically turning to low or no calorie sweeteners. Although perceptions of these alternatives have improved since 2017, more consumers still view them negatively than positively.
“That distinction matters for the sweetener industry,” said Roberts. “Health-conscious consumers may reject both sugar and artificial alternatives rather than choosing one over the other. That means opposition to artificial ingredients does not necessarily translate into rapid growth for sugar demand. Instead, it tends to support demand for natural sweeteners relative to synthetic options.”
For now, U.S. sugar deliveries continue to outperform expectations. Growth in sugar deliveries has been broad-based across major channels. USDA data through April shows increased deliveries across wholesale grocers, beverage manufacturers, bakery and cereal producers and confectionery companies. Gains in those and other categories have more than offset declines in sugar deliveries to government agencies, dairy processors, foodservice operators and frozen food manufacturers.
Roberts said consumer behavior continues to favor sweetened products and snack manufacturers are reformulating products to satisfy evolving consumer preferences while maintaining taste and affordability. Even categories facing broader challenges, such as carbonated soft drinks, continue to generate sales growth through portion-size innovations and premium offerings.
“While alternative sweeteners continue to gain some traction, natural sweeteners appear to have stronger long-term momentum,” he added. “The U.S. stevia market is growing rapidly as manufacturers increasingly incorporate it into dairy products, baked goods and other applications beyond traditional beverage uses. These trends suggest that consumers are not simply replacing sugar with artificial sweeteners, but gravitating toward products perceived as more natural.”
Read the report, Sugar demand holds steady, but health trends signal longer-term risk.
About CoBank
CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving almost 80,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country. CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore.
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